Farmer’s Almanac’s Secret Weather-Predicting Formula Claims to Have 80 Percent Accuracy

Update: For the new Farmers Almanac 2016 – 2017 Winter Weather Forecast click here

and the Old Farmer’s Almanac 2016 Winter Weather Predictions here

The Farmers' Almanac's long-range winter outlook for 2015-2016 is due out August 24, and initial speculation of their forecast predicts a snowy, cold winter for most of the United States.

"I will tell you that many of your readers will be happy with our outlook," said Farmers' Almanac's Managing Editor, Sandi Duncan of the forecast that boasts an 80-85 percent accuracy and is predicted 16 months in advance of its release. 

The Farmer's Almanac was first published in 1818 and is a time-tested informational guide that touts itself as compendium of knowledge on weather, life-hacks and beyond.

"Unlike your local news, government, or commercial weather service, Farmers' Almanac forecasts are calculated several years in advance," said Duncan. "Once the Farmers' Almanac is printed, the editors never go back to change or update its forecasts the way other local sources do. Though weather forecasting, and long-range forecasting in particular, remains an inexact science, many people swear by the long-range weather forecasts offered by [the Farmers' Almanac] which claims an 80-85 percent accuracy rate," she continued.

We probed Duncan for a deeper overview of the Almanac's winter outlook, but were told to wait until it officially drops on August 24.

In the meantime, here is a look at last year's predictions which held true for some regions, but not all.


"Our forecasts are based on a very specific mathematical and astronomical formula. Developed in 1818 by David Young, the Almanac's first editor, this formula takes many factors into consideration, including sunspot activity, moon phases, tidal action, and more. This carefully-guarded formula has been passed along from calculator to calculator and has never been revealed," said Duncan of the secret methodology of their forecasts.

We're curious to see if the Almanacs' predictions will contradict the current forecasts backed by NOAA which suggest the strong El Niño may bring snow to areas including; Northern California and Southwestern Colorado, but may create dry conditions in the Pacific Northwest.

Though this is all very speculative for the approaching North American winter, there’s no disputing that South America is the place to be right now. Chile and Argentina have been getting hammered with snow. SASS Argentina’s head coach, Andrew Burns, who’s gone to Argentina annually for 12 summers, recently posted the picture below and said, “This mid-August cold Argentine powder is so frickin’ good right now!!!”

Nice Burns… We’re looking, and we’re liking.


Andrew Burns getting that blower Argentine chow..

Check the gallery of goods from the first week of SASS Argentina here.  


Chris Coulter slashing in Argentina this summer. PHOTO: Ben Girardi Click this photo for the full gallery.

View last winter's Farmer's Almanac forecast here. Was it accurate for your region? 

More stories about El Niño here.