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Pat Moore, Chilean backcountry
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NOAA Releases Winter Weather Outlook; El Niño Too Big to Fail

Where Will it Snow This Season? NOAA Predicts Winter Weather

El Niño, the weather phenomena based on rising pacific sea temperatures, continues to grow in strength, and according to NOAA’s latest Winter Weather Outlook released on Thursday, this current El Niño is too big to fail.

“A strong El Niño is in place and should exert a strong influence over our weather this winter,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.”

“While temperature and precipitation impacts associated with El Niño are favored, El Niño is not the only player. Cold-air outbreaks and snow storms will likely occur at times this winter,” he continued.

So just where are these ‘cold-air outbreaks and snow storms’ likely to occur?

Winter Weather, Snow Winter, Winter Weather Forecast

This is NOAA’s precipition probability for December, January, and February. From this, we can deduce resorts in California and Colorado may experience a wetter (hopefully snowier) winter, while our friends in the Pacific Northwest and Hawaii may have a dryer, warmer winter. Cry Emoji

Winter Weather forecast, Snow Report

As far as winter temperatures go, a warming trend continues for most of the United States, and those in the South and South Eastern part of the country may experience cooler temperatures. This really does nothing those of us hoping for feet upon feet of fresh pow in the mountains. (Sigh…)

Though things are looking a little grim for the mountainous regions this season, NOAA’s Winter Outlook continues to entice us with their latest prediction, because maybe, just maybe, a good snow season is a head, based on the sheer size of this gargantuan El Niño.

El Nino is growing in Strength, Winter Weather is happening
El Niño is growing.

“This year’s El Niño, among the strongest on record, is expected to influence weather and climate patterns this winter by impacting the position of the Pacific jet stream,” NOAA’s latest prediction informed.

So you’re saying there’s a chance…?

DroughtOutlook_Oct15-Jan16_610
At least the drought in SoCal may be alleviated thanks to El Niño.

NOAA’s 2015 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February)

Precipitation Outlook:

•Wetter-than-average conditions most likely in the Southern Tier of the United States, from central and southern California, across Texas, to Florida, and up the East Coast to southern New England. Above-average precipitation is also favored in southeastern Alaska.

•Drier-than-average conditions most likely for Hawaii, central and western Alaska, parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, and for areas near the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Temperature Outlook:

•Above-average temperatures are favored across much of the West and the northern half of the contiguous United States. Temperatures are also favored to be above-average in Alaska and much of Hawaii. Below-average temperatures are most likely in the southern Plains and Southeast.

This may not be the most favorable winter weather outlook we’ve posted, but there’s still time for winter to shape up. At least Sunday River in Maine opens for the season on Monday and it’s currently raining here in SoCal, so who the hell knows what’s actually going to happen this winter anyways.

All we can do at this point is keep our fingers crossed, do some snow dances, and hope that Mother Nature catches a serious case of the stomach flu and pukes pow everyday this season.

Is this weather forecast too science-based for you? Then check out the Farmers Almanac Winter Weather Prediction— It’s the exact opposite of NOAA’s forecast.